The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: AC Flyer who wrote (26064)	12/16/2004 4:53:39 PM
From: TH	Read Replies (2) of 306849

AC Flyer, Some very interesting ideas in here. I have some regional concerns with the base assumption. I think the Detroit area is going to suffer as people migrate in search of jobs to replace those lost in automotive. This automotive job loss wave is coming, and so far nothing that I see, or the many people in the industry that I speak with see, is going to change it. Dent's site is interesting. Do I understand that his spending wave forecast is calling for Dow 30,000 next year? I realize he produced that chart in 00 or 01, but it would appear that we are going to miss that projection. Dent also states he sees something of a top in 05 in real estate, with housing levels maybe sustained until 08. 08-10 we get a deflationary wave. Maybe Dent's timing is just off, and we get the deflation wave next year. Your point about SI having a predominately winter bias is fairly accurate. I try to keep this in mind while reading through my snow-covered glasses. Good Trading TH

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