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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: TH who wrote (26071)12/16/2004 5:25:36 PM
From: AC FlyerRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
>>I think the Detroit area is going to suffer as people migrate in search of jobs to replace those lost in automotive<<

Any national forecast will necessarily average regional variations. Detroit is on the wrong side of a confluence of social, demographic and economic trends, so will probably find itself at the low end of the regional distribution of housing price gains.

>>Do I understand that his spending wave forecast is calling for Dow 30,000 next year?<<

I am not sure where you saw this. Possibly you misinterpreted the Spending Wave chart. Do you have a link? Dent has been consistent in forecasting Dow 30,000+ towards the end of this decade - 2009-ish: hsdent.com

>>Dent also states he sees something of a top in 05 in real estate, with housing levels maybe sustained until 08<<

It's interesting that while Dent is forecasting a stock market boom through 2009/2010, he is also forecasting prices in residential real estate through that period that will be in aggregate just flat to slightly up (there will be regional outliers, of course). He recommends eliminating any unnecessary exposure to residential real estate by 2009 at the latest. Of course, this is a trick that very few will be able to pull off. Even so, prices of the homebuilder stocks might well double or triple through 2008.
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