Rod, good to see you on SI.
Not holding DMX right now; waiting for a re-entry point.
Anybody who's read the arbitrator's decision from the Provalis shipwreck, who saw Solvay's anger about their treatment prior to the advent of new management should be in no doubt about the dismal performance of previous management.
Pennsaid's current sales reflect a few realities:
1 - It never was launched to the accompaniment of an American DTC advertising campaign, and expectations in that context can't be reached. We don't have the expected spillover from US advertising, and the added kick that would have given Canadian marketing
2 - Past marketing was minimal, and constrained by lack of cash
3 - The company failed to produce the necessary trial data to support marketing
4 - The price was probably too high. Anyone who's read the cost comparisons of insurers, or the statements of provincial formularies will be in little doubt about that.
5 - A lot of complaints about marketing performance, when previous management's conduct caused Solvay to quit selling, for a while. In addition, has anyone spoken to physicians about this? What is the point of visiting a physician again and again, and again? They get tired of it. They know the product, they've heard you out, and they've made up their minds. At some point, further visits become counterproductive: the point where a physician thinks you're wasting his or her time, and begins to get angry. Then the product begins to feel a backlash.
Remember, many physicians won't even see drug reps.
Proper marketing needs a multifaceted approach, and money: lots of it. These things Dimethaid hasn't had.
6 - Some posters are re-advocating RK's old, cerebral argument that formularies will support Pennsaid because it actually saves the health system money, through lack of side effects. A nice argument, logically acceptable. Only one problem... where's the data to support it?
The answer is (of course) there is no data. Until that argument can be substantiated with data showing an actual benefit, there's no reason to believe formularies will accept it.
If someone said to you, "Here's our brand of oil: use it. It costs 10 times as much as everyone else's, but it'll save you money in the long run." Would you buy that argument? That oil? Without proof that you WILL save money?
We may get some relief after Pennsaid goes off-patent, and the PMRB no longer has control over Pennsaid's price. Hard to say whether Dimethaid and Solvay will lower the price, but if they don't, it's difficult to see the formularies changing their minds.
7 - Is it possible that our expectations for Pennsaid were too high? Should we re-evaluate it? Just asking...
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It was posted months ago that there's no good reason to expect dramatic upside news on Pennsaid. It's a great product, with a legacy of problems and mismanagement to resolve. It'll take a while.
The current quiet reflects a lot of hard work and preparation, a lot of cost-cutting and rationalization. There's a difference between the old silence, which hid inactivity and dreadful mistakes, and the new.
I believe you'll find a lot is changing, but it's unreasonable to expect too much immediately.
In the meantime, everyone's forgotten about WF10. Get ready for some surprises.
Regards,
Jim
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