George Gilder - Forbes ASAP Message Board

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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP

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To: Rick Kiray who wrote (15)	8/30/1997 2:39:00 PM
From: JMD	of 5853

Rick, don't mind opposing viewpoints at all, and in fact agree that GG goes off to the evangelical side from time to time--java may be an excellent example. On the flip side, I have found his track record to be excellent, i.e., he's right more often than he's wrong. I also think his strong viewpoint is most helpful in trying to sort through the welter of claims and counterclaims in the chaos and controversy that defines the technology investing field. Seven years or so back, Gilder was the only guy who refused to buy into the High Definition Television panic (the Japanese are going to rule the world with HDTV,the U.S. will be headed to economic serfdom, Congress proposed spending millions of our tax dollars to "jump start" our research efforts into HDTV, etc.) Gilder said flat out: poppycock! HDTV is nothing more than enhanced analog and the future of TV is digital and they (the Japanese) have completely and totally missed the boat. Of course he was dead right and the Japanese wound up writing off well over $2 billion. I would be most interested in hearing your viewpoint on CDMA which you evidently feel is overly hyped. I am not an electrical engineer, not even close. I have however studied the matter in some depth and believe that Gilder is right on again. True confessions: I am long both Qualcomm and Lucent. Please let the thread know your opinion regarding this. I strongly recommend you visit: qualcom.com and review the technical papers there (they are primarily for laymen although you can get as heavy as you want). You may also wish to review Lucent's site--they are completely in the CDMA camp and regard GSM/TDMA as legacy technologies which they support only to maintain their European business. The bottom line is that CDMA makes massively more efficent use of the frequency spectrum and supports Gilder's view of the "dumb and dark" network. CDMA also transfers data at orders of magnitude improvement over TDMA speeds. I will go so far as to say that Motorola and Ericsson are in real trouble over their failure to adopt CDMA. Happy to listen to the other side however. Regards, Mike Doyle

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