The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: flint who wrote (26115)	12/17/2004 10:23:48 AM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (2) of 306849

Reading between your lines, you sound as if this time is different? When this home buying frenzy busts, the builders will drop like a rock. Back to a 10PE on 50 cents of earnings kind of drop. Who knows when it busts though. Or what the exact cause will be. But the mania will in fact end. Maybe it is interest rate induced. Maybe it is price induced as people decide that the premium they are paying for a 1/6 acre postage stamp tendy location lot is insane. Maybe its the sheer inventory of homes being built. Maybe its the perfect combination of the three. Interest rates, falling prices, and all that past sold inventory coming back on the markIt for a second time as the new owner tries to sell taxfree. Maybe it doesn't end for 2 or 3 more years. But it does end. And badly. (As in there sure isn't a large demand for a crap constructed 5 year old house, showing undue wear as a result of quality issues, in a used-to-be trendy hotspot which is now not so in vogue.)

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