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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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From: LindyBill	12/17/2004 2:54:38 PM
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Snohomish Anomaly Still Unexplained Sound Politics The Everett Herald offers this explanation of Gregoire's 44 vote pickup. results of the hand recount favored Gregoire, reflecting where the candidates drew their most electoral support. She won 51 percent of mail ballot votes while Rossi won 53 percent of those cast on touch-screen machines on Election Day. The increase in votes in the recount came solely from mail ballots; the results of votes cast electronically did not change. Thus, Gregoire could be expected to pass Rossi. [hat tip to our good friend David "Horse Man" Goldstein for posting the link to the Herald article in a comment] The Herald's theory explains only a small part of the unexpected swing to Gregoire. I pulled some numbers off the Snohomish County recount canvass Absentee Ballots Gregoire Rossi Rossi Percentage Machine Recount 96,925 95,153 49.54% Manual Recount 97,044 95,228 49.53% Pickup in new ballots +119 +75 38.66% Expected breakdown of new ballots +98 +96 Discrepancy +21 -21 If you assume that the newly added absentee ballots should break to both candidates in the same proportions as in the previously counted absentee ballots, then the probability of Rossi receiving at most 75 of the 194 votes is 0.15%. This is not an outcome that can be reasonably attributed to random variation. There is no cause to allege that anything improper has occurred, but an explanation from the vote counters is in order. The Snohomish County Auditor's office is emailing me the complete canvass files in spreadsheet form, so I can study the numbers more closely and see if there are any patterns in the precinct level returns. soundpolitics.com

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