Wade & Dan, et al,
There was a very interesting interview in Barron's this week in which the focus was the dollar and gold. The introduction was:
"An Interview With Bob Hoye and Ross Clark -- Clark's technical charts speak a thousand words. But if you still have trouble interpreting them, collaborator Hoye at Institutional Advisors, an independent market research and forecasting firm founded in 1980 and based in Vancouver, British Columbia, readily puts them into context with his lively daily and weekly commentary for institutional traders, hedge funds and chief investment officers.
The two focus on alerting investors to important market trends that present significant moneymaking opportunities, with special attention paid to interest-rate movements, the major stock-market indexes, base metals, gold and oil. Their calls tend to be uncannily correct, whether it's been predicting the stock- market bottom in October 2002, the seasonal rally in the stock market this summer or the new bull market in gold. That's why their forecast for a dollar rally is generating excitement and why their broad outlook for an eventual flight to safety seems so scary."
I find it hard to accept the view that the dollar will rally but, if others have serious problems, I guess it is reasonable that the dollar could hold its own. To me this means we are in for serious global recession. I would prefer that any gains in my PM-related holdings occur during a solid global economy.
Lease rate patterns over the past weeks haven't shown any short-term correlation with the POG and aren't telling me anything.
The GMI/POG ratio for the past week:
On 12/16, the Barron's GMI was 651.90, up ever so slightly from the week before's last 650.59. With the POG up at 438.90 (12/17), the ratio down slightly at 1.49.
The ratio continues in the middle range where it doesn't suggest a rise or drop in the POG. It is clear that there is very little speculation behind the price of stocks at this time.
The ratio a year ago was 1.68, indicating a higher level of optimism at that time.
Larry |
