<<Do you think there is any real possibility of immu getting a partner and would the partner own cd 22 for its impact on lupus or any disease process.>>
Kitty, that is the $64 million question. I am betting on it, so I have to believe it is a real possibility.
<<How can immu keep going if they do not get partner
do they have any other income from selling antibodies>>
They would have to sell shares, not a pretty picture, in fact, to me, it would be the most serious situation the company would be in since I've been involved over the last 10 years.
<<do they have any other income from selling antibodies>>
They show some sales from two diagnostics, CeaScan and LeukoScan, the latter in Europe and they have income from a HAMA kit they sell. They don't break out the sales, but I would bet the HAMA kit is a significant part of the income. It isn't anywhere near enough to support the company and in fact the income has been declining each year.
<<Is there a big market for lupus in terms of potential patients>>
The lupus population is estimated to be about 1.5 million patients in the US. About 20% of those patients are considered chronic. It is a significant market. If CD22 were to be approved and even 20% of the 20% chronic had treatments twice a year, at $10,000 per treatment (less than Rituxan costs), that would be $600 million in sales. The chronic lupus are very sick, with pain and fatigue giving them a low quality of life, many unable to work. So I think 20% of the chronic is very conservative.
<<let us say they get a partner today how long is the phase 3>>
They expect to start a phase lll pivotal trial early in 2005, March is their target timeframe, but they have never seemed to be able to hit those targets. If they get a big partner by then, I think the trial would go pretty fast. I would think they could treat 300 to 400 patients in two years at the most and probably less than that as I believe there are lots of lupus patients who are not being helped much. |
