HUI - A Sliver of Hope For the Bulls
Longterm I have the HUI as having completed a possible 5 of 9 or even 13 waves up. It is in a 6 correction yet, or it is in a 7th wave up. This chart shows it in the 7th wave up. There are a couple of approaches, but this is the conservative one for this 7th wave up possibility.
I like the fact that the WM's % R and StochRsi both show signs of breaking a DT, on the dailies, w/r to the recent correction. I also like the fact that the HUI has held here for 7 plus days. If the bearish alternative were in play, it would seem less likely for that to be so.
Finally I also like the fact that the dollar and POG both chart out EW wise to be in a similar spot.
The other positive attribute on this chart is the LT semi-log uptrend line. Will it hold? If you like semi-log, you would have to think yes.
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There is also one important ST wave pattern that gives hope to the bulls. It is shown here, and it appears an abc may have been completed. I can not chart that initial dink down off the top any other way but as an a. That is what we are looking for here, an abc. Do we have it, or do we think we have it?
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If you are an IT bear you will chart the HUI this way, and you would have the HUI in the initial stages of a larger C down, and still in this wave 6 correction. A low for this path is unknown, but as you can see the support really picks up just below here, and it increases.
Again I don't have the minor wavelets to work for this, but it could yet be so.
On the move down so far the HUI hit a shelf in the VAP with the tip of its daily candle, as it usually does. The base of the candle then moved back up into a hole and a shelf has formed just above that hole. This is bullish but no cigar yet. Further inspection of the VAP reveals that support increases just below here, then decreases a bit, but then really becomes super strong at about 190. So those calling for an HUI knock out blow back to 160 or lower seem a bit bearish.
Long term it would seem the next time the HUI moves back above 225 and for sure 230, it will be gone, on a long move up. Why? Because it will most likely stay above that big overhead area, and be moving into decreasing overhead. Look at the VAP pattern.
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