Kitty, this September article will address some of your questions.
washingtonpost.com
I talked to someone at the company a while back after reading this article and asked them how effective these other products were, they said "We have no way to know that, however, the investigators we talk to that have been close to those trials want to get CD22 into their own clinics as they don't yet seem enthused about anything they have looked at to date". That leave a lot to speculation of course.
I also heard that when the first presentation was given on the 11 lupus patients, a researcher that was involved with the Rituxan studies for lupus commented "we can't touch that data". Of course, it was just 11 patients, but the data is compelling. The question is, is it compelling enough to land a significant deal.
<<if immu gets deal based on your experience what would stock level per share go to?>>
That is a tough question. It of course would depend on several factors.
1. Who is the partner?
2. How much upfront?
3. What is the sector and market doing at the time the deal is announced?
I'd guess that if the deal is for less than $40 million, the stock will go up a little, but might not make double digits, unless it is a great partner. If the deal is $75 million or more and a great partner, then it should get to double digits fairly soon if the market and sector are doing OK. It is really a wild guess.
Yes, first to market is huge, unless you have a drug with less side effects and is obviously safer.
I also saw a small study for Rituxan for an autoimmune disease and the HACA was surprisingly high, that isn't good. That is probably why Biogen is working on a humanized CD20, I believe they see some weaknesses with the Chimeric version (Rituxan) in diseases that require repeated uses, and autoimmune will likely require a lot of that. |
