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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: mishedlo who wrote (23585)12/19/2004 6:15:22 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
Guess only Bully's left from the easy money experiment.

Retailers See Little Late Holiday Buying
Sunday December 19, 5:57 pm ET
By Anne D'Innocenzio, AP Business Writer

Late Holiday Shopping Traffic Disappoints Retailers As Buying Bonanza Appears to Evaporate

NEW YORK (AP) -- The nation's retailers remained on edge Sunday, as the much-hoped for sales bonanza appeared not to materialize on the last weekend before Christmas, despite an abundance of deals on toys and apparel.

Merchants, who had a slow start to the holiday season that never picked up steam, needed a big sales surge this past weekend to recoup lost business. Now, they'll have to rely even more heavily on the final days before and after Christmas to meet their holiday sales forecast.

"We are not getting the kind of lift we need. Traffic and sales were below expectations" on Saturday, said Michael P. Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers, who was analyzing data late Sunday from ShopperTrak, which tallies sales results from 30,000 retail outlets. Niemira, who serves as an adviser to ShopperTrak, said sales figures will be released Monday.

Marshal Cohen, senior industry analyst at NPD Group Inc., a market research company based in Port Washington, N.Y., agreed that the weekend was disappointing: "Some stores did moderately well, some did moderately OK."

What is hurting merchants is that there is no must-have item, except in consumer electronics -- iPod music players and the PlayStation2 video game console, for example, have become difficult to find in many areas.

Saturday is traditionally the busiest day of the year for merchants, though last year, the day after Thanksgiving stole that crown. However, the last weekend before Christmas could be losing its luster as there are more ways to shop for a holiday item.

Niemira and Cohen noted that the increased popularity in gift cards and online spending could be helping to skew the sales figures. Gift cards are only recorded as sales when they are redeemed at the stores. Online sales, which are expected to increase 20 percent to 26 percent this holiday season, are not included in ShopperTrak's sales figures.

Scott Krugman, a National Retail Federation spokesman, was more hopeful, saying that based on anecdotal evidence, retailers had a good weekend. Furthermore, holiday sales are being pushed later this year, as there are two extra days in the season.

Niemira noted that luxury stores -- which have enjoyed robust sales as their well-heeled customers have benefited from the economy's recovery -- had the best performance.

Meanwhile, stores that catered to the mid- to-low income shoppers -- who have pulled back on spending as they have been more vulnerable to high energy costs and a volatile job market -- pushed hard again with heavy discounts and expanded shopping hours this weekend.


Sears, Roebuck and Co. reported "very good customer traffic," company spokesman Bill Masterson said.

Wal-Mart, which had stepped up discounting after a disappointing start to the holiday season, reported on Saturday an uptick in general merchandise sales the week ended Friday, noting that sales of winter merchandise improved. In a recorded message, the company said it was sticking to its holiday sales forecast. It could not be learned how sales fared over the weekend.

Karen MacDonald, a spokeswoman at Taubman Centers, which owns or manages 22 malls, said she was "pleased" with traffic and business, reporting that most stores surveyed were up a modest mid-single digits on average, based on a spot check of mall centers. Luxury stores did much better, with many upscale merchants reporting double-digit increases, she said.

Wally Brewster, senior vice president of General Growth Properties, which operate 220 malls across the country, expects that sales over this past weekend will be up a modest 2 percent to 5 percent over a year ago. But he said that gift card sales should rise 20 to 25 percent this season over the year-ago period.

If the past weekend ends up being a dud, it will be yet another disappointment in a season that has seen shoppers wait even longer than a year ago.

"This year slipped past me. So it's a rush to get it done," said Nick Medwid, who was dashing into a high-end jewelry store Friday at Short Pump Town Center in Richmond Va.

Meanwhile, at the packed Jefferson Mall in Louisville, Ky., on Saturday, Edward Newton was shopping for relatives and a "few lady friends."

"I've always been a last-minute shopper," the Louisville, Ky. resident said. "I like the last-minute rush of it, the immediacy of it."

Newton found a good deal on a DVD player for $24, after a rebate and said he purchased gift cards from Bath and Body Works, Sears and Victoria's Secret.

Clearly, there was plenty of caution among shoppers in the malls.

Frankie Pumphrey of Oak Forest, Ill., who was at the Lenox Square Mall in Atlanta, said she will spend less than a year ago on holiday gifts, as she is on disability. She was buying a few items for her grandchildren.

"The money's just not there, and the cost of living is just so high," said Pumphrey, who was in Atlanta visiting her family. "The bare necessities take up all your money."

"I look for sales," said Sharon Antoine of Manhattan. "The sales seem to be pretty good ... and the closer you get to Christmas the better they get."

Discounts were more generous this weekend than a year ago, though most stores didn't hit the panic button. Most discounting was planned, except for stores like Sears, which added an extra enticement -- a $10 gift card for the first 100 shoppers that walked in their doors at 7 a.m. Saturday.

Macy's had 50 percent discounts on all 14 carat gold and sterling silver jewelry, and on many brand label's men's suit separates, suits and sport coats.

"I'm getting a lot better prices than I expected," said Lauren Brackett of Boston, who was carrying bags outside Filene's on Saturday in Boston's downtown shopping district.

"I planned on spending at least $1,000 on Christmas shopping, but I've got more than half my list done and I've only spent $300," she said.

She just picked up a sweater for her mother for about $50, reduced from about $70, she said.

But some were just not impressed.

"It's the same old stuff they got year 'round," said Stephanie Miller, of Louisville, Ky., who was completing her holiday shopping on Saturday at the local Jefferson Mall. "Twenty percent off? Whatever. It's the same old, same old."
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