Market Cap, correct.
Previous est of net peak H royalties, before lawsuit, were $30-$40m. Perhaps you did not adjust for the MRC royalty.
Not sure how you are treating cash, but with the AZN payment there is an obligation to fund the JV (supply 150 scientists).
If you give 0 value to the rest of the royalty interests, which apparently is what Goldman Sachs does, and 0 value to anti-il-13 then this thing is fully valued and is a sell. In my view that is being way too conservative and in Goldman's case hypocritical. I see value in those other programs, on the other hand I can't make the case for outperformance or undervaluation.
Trabio is worth 0. eotaxin is worth 0. TGFb1 is worth 0. The pan-TGFb Mab....gotta be hard-headed about it at the moment, so 0.
But the AZN collaboration is worth something, but how does one value that, no visible value for another 3 years. This is just another way of saying the UNDERLYING TECHNOLOGY IS WORTH SOMETHING. Unfortunately, there is no longer a vibrant market for deals like CAT did with Knoll.
Bottom line, if you have a great feeling for IL-12 (I do), Blys (no opinion) and Trail (no opinion) it is a hold and maybe a buy. If you don't then it is a sell and come back and look at it in a few years.
I like everything Peter C has done, however, including the AZN deal, so it is hard to let go. But I think I'm gunna have to. There is more pop available elsewhere.
I'll bet the AZN collaboration pays off however. |
