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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: mishedlo who wrote (23631)12/20/2004 8:37:27 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
Australia has some things they are working on but I forget the exact nature.
One of those comes into play and oil and oil stocks get wrecked

i do not think there is any silver bullet out there that can have sufficient impact. to have sufficient impact, an alternative needs to be available in sufficient volume and have sufficient switchability. most of the alternatives have MUCH lower net energy returns than oil, so it is difficult to get up the volume. also, the long term hopeful alternatives like hydrogen involve totally different infrastructures and are not sufficiently switchable in a period less than decades.

note that in the real world of actual energy production as opposed to mere media hype, the real "alternative" to crude is in fact things like tar sands, i.e., "unconventional oil" which doesn't even leave the realm of hydrocarbons. also note that the low net energy return on tar sands has kept production levels as a percentage of reserves extremely low compared to conventional oil fields. nobody's predicting Canada will become the next Saudi Arabia.

in the near and intermediate terms, i think the prices of oil and oil stocks are much more vulnerable to a decline in demand from severe economic weakness or exogenous events than to a supply glut induced by turkey guts and algae husks.
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