Trans-Atlantic Relations
Germany's Tight-Rope Walk Between Russia and the US
SPIEGEL ONLINE - December 20, 2004, 03:28 PM
URL: spiegel.de
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is playing a risky game of foreign policy poker. He is playing the anti-US card at home, but seeking to improve trans-Atlantic relations at the same time. Meanwhile, Russia is slowly replacing the US as Germany's closest ally.
Once Germany's Cold War adversary, Berlin now calls Moscow its "partner."
On Monday, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is expected to be waiting on the tarmac when Russian President Vladimir Putin lands at the Hamburg airport. In terms of diplomatic protocol, it's the height of respect. More signs of friendship are surely to come. During his two days in Germany, Putin and Schroeder will, as usual, exchange sincere smiles and heartfelt hugs. And those difficult sticking points of Ukraine and Chechnya -- no mention will likely be made.
Fast forward two months. At the end of February, U.S. President George W. Bush will visit Germany -- at least that's the plan. There will be photo-ops with forced smiles and much ado about the "importance of the trans-Atlantic relationship." But first they need to agree on a meeting place. Berlin is out of the question, since it would look like "business as usual." The Americans have named Heidelberg or the idyllic medieval town of Rothenburg ob der Tauber -- National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice has said she wants it to be somewhere "picturesque." The Germans, meanwhile, have suggested Frankfurt an der Oder, an eastern German city that skirts the Polish border. Protocol workers in Berlin are already grimacing when they think about the difficult negotiations that lie ahead.
A little friendliness here, a little tense manoeuvering there -- if the atmosphere of the visits say anything about the state of relations, then there is a clear case that climate change taking place between Moscow, Berlin and Washington. It wasn't long ago that the tables would have been turned, with the German chancellor picking up the Americans at the airport while strictly adhering to protocol with the Russians and sending an underling to get them.
Now, when Schroeder speaks of Germany's former Cold War adversary, he calls Russia "our partner." But the Americans, who were known as "our friends" to every German chancellor since Konrad Adenauer, have now been reduced to the status of "our ally."
US President George W. Bush has allegedly been angry with Schroeder since he used his anti-Iraq war position in the 2002 German federal election campaign.
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DPA
US President George W. Bush has allegedly been angry with Schroeder since he used his anti-Iraq war position in the 2002 German federal election campaign.
Germany is currently repositioning itself -- distancing itself more from the US while aligning itself more closely to Russia. In public, Schroeder is striving to create an image of normalcy. "Personally, I get along well with him during talks," he has said about Bush. Or: "There are the known differences of opinion, but that doesn't keep us from working closely together." But those aren't lines that bespeak traditional post-World War II relations between Germany and the US. "Businesslike" is the first word that comes to the minds of many diplomats in Berlin when you ask them to describe the state of German-American relations.
Charm offensive or status quo?
German government officials are currently analyzing the trans-Atlantic "charm offensive" to determine whether the Americans are preparing to meet Europeans at the half-way point on serious issues or whether the visit is just meant to improve the strained atmosphere. Right now, things appear to be pointing in the latter direction. In Berlin, Schroeder and Fischer have been closely monitoring Bush's picks for his new cabinet. So far, the impression is that those selected won't be inclined to diminish political tensions. In Washington, a policy battle is raging between "radical conservatives" and "true radicals," one top German diplomat recently confided.
Earlier this month, Fischer's undersecretary, Klaus Scharioth, long considered a pro-American voice in the Foreign Ministry, met with his counterpart Douglas Feith, an undersecretary to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and also part of his inner circle. Scharioth traveled to Washington to get a better idea of the future course of the US government's foreign policy. His meeting with Rice went off without a hitch, but when he met with Feith, the undersecretary greeted him with a long laundry list of complaints.
A human rights group used Germany as its venue to file a petition for war crimes charges to be placed against Donald Rumsfeld.
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AP
A human rights group used Germany as its venue to file a petition for war crimes charges to be placed against Donald Rumsfeld.
Topping the list was the case against Donald Rumsfeld filed in a German court by the Center for Constitutional Rights, a New York-based human rights group, for war crimes based on the abuses at the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq. The petition must now be reviewed by the Federal Prosecutor's Office. An incensed Feith demanded that the government immediately drop the case. Otherwise, he warned, the Pentagon chief would be unable to attend a security conference planned in Munich in February. When Scharioth began to explain that the German justice system is independent, but that the case still had virtually no chance of success, Feith just moved to the next complaint on his list: That the Germans aren't doing enough for Iraq.
Nor is Iraq the only bone of contention. The Americans have observed, with skepticism, Germany's jockeying for a seat on the United Nations Security Council. The US government hasn't made any official statements about it, but many diplomats suspect Washington will block the attempt.
Despite the inherent risks, there are, in Schroeder's view, several things that speak in favor of a double strategy when it comes to relations with Moscow and Washington. It starts on a personal level -- Putin is fluent in German and the two can have real face-to-face chats without using an interpreter. And both have risen from modest backgrounds to the top. Indeed, Schroeder's loyalty to his partner in the east is so deep that he believes he has to protect Putin from all forms of criticism -- so much so, in fact, that he calls him an "unblemished democrat."
With Bush, on the other hand, things were complicated from the beginning. Schroeder has never felt comfortable in Washington with its intimidating political stage. And Bush still resents him to this day for, in his opinion, having promised he wouldn't use the Iraq issue during his re-election campaign. He feels deceived by the Germans.
Common interests with Russia
But in his mind, at least, Schroeder is following the path he believes will best serve Germany's interests. Indeed, Russia has much to offer. According to Schroeder's calculations, Russia will become one of Germany's most-important trading partners in the next 20 to 30 years. Already today, one-third of Germany's oil and natural gas needs are served by deliveries from Russia. And the export volume has almost tripled during the past five years -- though it is still far, far lower than Germany's trade with the US.
And Putin is always willing to listen the Schroeder's requests -- even intervening in personal instances. He discreetly helped the Schroeders when they adopted a Russian girl this year and he also helped Deutsche Bank gain a leading position in the consortium that was supposed to finance the takeover of Russian oil giant Yukos, which the Kremlin forced onto the auction block this weekend in order to extract back taxes. On Friday, Deutsche Bank pulled out of the deal out of fear it would be subjected to billion dollar lawsuits from investors in the US, who have contested the auction. Nevertheless, the situation is still win-win for Schroeder. Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackermann recently told his advisors that the chancellor's aid had been "priceless."
Schroeder's slight anti-American approach also has domestic political currency. Schroeder and Foreign Minister Fischer are unlikely to forget that their "no" to the war in Iraq helped them to get re-elected in 2002.
The dangers of rapprochement
Still, no one in Gerhard Schroeder's chancellery is seriously thinking about severing Germany's ties to the US. The idea is to create more possibilities and greater wiggle room. Nevertheless, there are dangers involved in Schroeder's policy of rapprochement with Moscow. What the chancellor calls a "partnership" is, on closer observation, really a relationship of interests built around business questions and the desire to provide checks and balances to the world's last remaining superpower. Like all alliances, its existence is based almost exclusively on mutual interests that could quickly dissolve.
The only concrete fact known about Bush's upcoming visit is that he will arrive in Brussels on Feb. 22, where he will meet with NATO generals and European Union representatives. He is considering flying on to Germany the next day.
But before the visit becomes a sure thing, there remains a lot to discuss. Bernd Muetzelburg, Schroeder's foreign policy adviser, recently spent several days in Washington coordinating with Rice. The Americans want to make sure the visit ends with some sort of declaration of intent -- anything else would be a failure for Bush, especially if he extends an olive branch and the other side doesn't accept it.
Currently, two possibilities are being discussed. If elections go relatively well in Iraq, the Germans could once again increase their efforts in the country's post-war reconstruction. Another possibility is that Bush could declare his support for the efforts of Germany, Britain and France to get Iran's mullah-controlled regime to scrap its nuclear weapons program -- but only if Germany and its so-called EU trio partners agreed to a tough sanctions program if those efforts fail.
Both sides are approaching the other cautiously. One Berlin foreign policy advisor summed it up like this: "Everyone knows where the other draws the red lines, and they try as much as possible to respect them."
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