Japan Nov trade surplus up mth-on-mth; down 39.2 pct year-on-year
Wednesday, December 22, 2004 1:31:22 AM
TOKYO (AFX) - Japan's merchandise trade surplus in November rose a seasonally adjusted 16.2 pct from the previous month to 990.5 bln yen, the Ministry of Finance said
Exports increased 1.0 pct to 5.34 trln yen while imports fell 1.9 pct to 4.35 trln yen
However from a year earlier, the trade surplus plunged 39.2 pct to 602.0 bln yen, only the second drop in 17 months and far below even the most conservative estimate in a poll of 21 brokerages and research institutes
Economists expected a consensus surplus figure of 1.00 trln yen, according to the average of forecasts in that Nihon Keizai Shimbun poll, and with estimates ranging from 821.8 bln yen to 1.16 trln yen
Year-on-year, exports rose 13.4 pct to 5.16 trln yen, less than half the 28.0 pct increase in imports to 4.55 trln yen
Japan's export performance is being watched for evidence of whether demand abroad for Japanese products is flagging, weakening a major driving force behind Japan's economic recovery
In October, the seasonally-adjusted trade surplus rose 5.8 pct from the previous month, as exports rose 3.2 pct. But in September, the surplus dropped 21.8 pct, as exports fell 2.3 pct
The country's trade surplus had been growing steadily on a year-on-year basis due to strong exports of electronic products such as mobile phones, flat-screen TVs and DVDs, and automobiles and auto products, to the US, Europe and especially China
But some forecasts for global demand for IT products point to a cyclical downturn, and in recent months exports of a number of major digital products have dropped
Meanwhile, overall imports have risen due to the surge in global crude oil prices. Oil is Japan's single largest import
Concern also exists that the growth in exports to China could weaken as Beijing acts to rein in runaway economic growth
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