Ray, I guess you know more about photovoltaics than the boss of BP Solar.
<BP Solar, the world's third largest solar company, is turning profitable for the first time in its 30-year history and aims to more than double its manufacturing capacity, the firm's president says. >
That doesn't seem to me that photovoltaics remain uneconomic today. They are already competing against conventional electrical generation because they have nibbled a little market share at the expense of conventional generation, at the periphery and where transmission costs are high. Some people are even pumping spare photovoltaic energy back into national grids. That IS competing with olde-style generation.
While googling BP Solar, I noticed that BP is now the world's numero uno oil company ahead of Exxon-Mobil now. It warms the cockles of my heart to see my old firm doing so well - I suppose it was set up by me for a huge boost in the 1990s, though of course there were some other people helping too. Lord Browne can no doubt claim some of the credit too. AND they did it without contracts from the PNAC, unlike Halliburton and other sidekicks.
<The BP Group represents over 100,000 employees worldwide united around a vision of environmental leadership and recognition that the challenge to develop a cleaner energy must be met. Our core purpose is to provide the energy which make it possible for people all across the globe to have more choices, more opportunity and a better way of life, today and tomorrow. >
It also warms the cockles of my heart to see BP now fully adopting what I was pushing, against a LOT of resistance, in the 1980s. There was some progress in the 1980s, but they have obviously realized that I was right all along. No, they haven't sent me a cheque for some reason. Maybe they lost my address [we have moved].
I am still interested to see if there's a class action suit against those who wantonly and negligently pushed lead in petrol, which was a BIG mistake. Some USA lawyers should be on the case as there was definitely damage from lead in petrol and I've been raving about it since 1983 when I was given the lead issue to deal with in NZ. Associated Octel makes the tobacco industry look like good guys. At least tobacco is self-inflicted and any idiot can tell that sucking smoke in is a bad idea. Lead was a sneaky poison which was painless and subtle.
But I digress.
Before I undigress, note too the increased choice of petrol types - the plan was to have 95 RON "Eurograde" - one product for everyone. An excellent Kremlin decision. I did manage to break that up into 3 grades - for rich people to buy 98RON, poor to buy 91 RON and a muddling middle to buy 95 RON or 96RON or thereabouts. Ah, the good old days and some idle boasting. BP has now also adopted the idea of choice. I got the double if not the trifecta.
Now, BP Solar is in profit. How cool is that?
The economics of photovoltaics: bpsolar.com
<Using typical borrowing costs and equipment life, the life-cycle cost of PV- generated energy generally ranges from $0.20 to $1.00/kWh. >
With oil at $50 a barrel, photovoltaics become competitive in a LOT more applications. Saudi Aradia doesn't want that to happen.
Meanwhile, oil is the best energy source for a long time to come for many applications. $40 a barrel [in depreciated US$] is a reasonable sort of price, but I expect to see $30 [in appreciated US$] and $20 depending on this and that. Maybe even $10 for a short time at some stage if peace breaks out and Iraq pumps flat out to get big heaps of money, Russia competes and Saudi Arabia tries to maintain market share without the USA keeping Iraqi oil off the market [and assuming the USA doesn't attack Saudi Arabia to keep their oil off the market - to keep prices nice and high].
Mqurice |
