Paul and all, we discussed CIEN early December when it was trading way below book value. It is up 14.7% today at $3.2, above book value $2.88.
With the market indices at new highs and many below-cash zero(or low)-debt tech stocks, this is almost a perfect tax-loss selling season to build up a diversified deeply-undervalued portfolio. It is very likely this basket (TFS, CIEN, INFO, PRCS, NOVT, OSTE, to name a few) will work out well in the next 6-12 months.
Every 2-3 years a cluster of below-cash tech stocks appear in a multi-month time window. Most other times they rise above cash or book value, make value investors scratching heads about what to do. Next time when those below-cash stocks disappear, I will simply hold for the most part, and build up cash positions as they become overvalued. I will not try to "time the market" by options trading, no big swings from 100% net long to 100% net short, it will be between 50-100% net long, and hope to have steady beat-the-market returns in any 2-3 years period. |
