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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (57439)12/22/2004 11:05:20 PM
From: Taikun  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Hi Jay,

Well, China needs big energy resources. Drips from Myannmar and scraps from the S. China Sea won't satiate her demand. Rustling around in the Congo is going to take time, and those pesky Canadians have a layer of political correctness that will take time to pierce.

China doesn't have the luxury of time.

Then here comes Russia, a major oil exporter with such a bad infrastructure it leaks more oil in a year than many nations produce, and it leaks more than even more nations consume! Russia still transports oil by barge and when the rivers freeze up oil by barge ceases. Wow! (How do you hedge that risk? Weather futures?) Then, Russia ships by rail. For the amount of oil Russia has, pipeline is the only way to go, and the proximity of China to Russia's oilfields makes for a compelling case.

China may still do the deal in the tar sands, but this deal, if it is China, will relegate that to the back seat.

The problem will be the US shareholders who will claim title to those assets. They will seek redress through the US court system. If those assets are in China'a hands, oh yes TwoAPuc may come into play with much diplomatic manouevering between the two.

Will China get a net benefit from this backdoor route to Russian oil?
Will China threat to cash in Clownbuck Treasuries?
Will Putin ever get down to the Crawford Ranch?
What hand will Bush play?

The next 4 years will be interesting.

I hope we make it.

D
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