businessweek.com "Real fears of devaluation"
TelMex was a good one, but August is right about the drop, I remember buying the first few in late Jan. or early Feb. of 95 for 29, the 52-week high at the time was 75 or 80, something like that. The stock dropped in peso terms at the same time the peso came down, sort of compounds the leverage. The stock on la Bolsa has since recovered in peso terms, but not in $US terms, of course now the monopoly is phasing out. That could happen with Telebras as well, I bet there is a time limit to exclusion of competition. These old dinosaur phone companies were never made to compete.....I don't know Telebras, but have experienced TelMex from the customer side and let me tell you, Lily Tomlin would be shocked and appalled....<g>.......
Not to say I don't think it could be an opportunity, it may very well be soon. There may be other Brazilian ADRs as well. What about an ADR thread? Maybe there is one, I'll check.
This guy Sam Raja icefi.com knows his stuff on CEFs, imho, and says the Asian ones are trading at considerable premiums right now, but may present some bargains in a few months.
.......cheers.......marcos
PS. Somebody said in a preceding post that there were analysts in 94 advising caution with the $NM. Well.....I don't remember any, and I'm sort of tuned in. The big thing with the 94 peso drop was a lack of information, along with errors and outright deception in what little information was supplied. As a result of that experience, there is a general trend in Latin America towards more, more up-to-date, and more accurate data, especially in M‚xico. Also they tend to have currency boards down there now instead of giving el presidente the keys to the printing press.......;-) |
