Dude:
Unfortunately, all we have to go by is rumors and hope, and that well is running dry after these last few years.
That said, though, I can't really imagine any news out this year. Between now and January, I suspect it'd be hard to get authorization to add a water cooler, much less approve any kind of deal I'd like to see. What, with vacations and end-of-year accounting and the recent drug issues (celebrex, vioxx, etc).
I absolutely agree that by June of '05, something *has* to be done. Personally, I'm hoping that Jan-Feb is the real time frame. But this is based on nothing except being really tired of waiting.
I'm pretty disappointed that it's been, what, 8 months since AMGN gave back rights to CD22. I'm sure it takes time to recover from that and shop around for a new deal, but puuhhhllease. I've been pessimistic about the chances of a deal this year since the August private placement. It's hard to imagine that they had a deal in the wings and chose to sell a bunch of shares at $3.61. Making such a financing deal to get them through starting a pivotal trial to make any potential partner more willing to belly up to the bar is a better scenario.
And we've surmised that Q1-Q2 next year is the time-frame to start enrolling patients. So announcing a deal sometime early next year seems like a reasonable time frame. But since we all know that it takes longer and costs more, I guess I'm willing to wait until June. But no deals announced by then will probably cause me to look real hard at whether I want to stay around.
My continual problem here is that despite my frustration, and probably because of the low price, it's hard for me to think of a place for my money with more potential to rise faster. Which is sad. But we're up almost 45% from the recent lows in August, and just "one little announcement" could propel us much higher.
Which is another way of saying that I'm a very slow learner <G>. Of course I've completely bypassed all the coulda-shoulda-woulda over the last 4 years. I think I figured out once that if I'd timed things perfectly, I could now own all the shares in this company several times over. Even taking taxes into account....
As you can probably tell, I'm just sitting around taking some vacation so I have time for long rambling posts. I suppose the short conclusion is that I'm still hanging around, getting increasingly frustrated, and hoping that '05 is *finally* the year in which I can retire from my IMMU shares. It's perfectly possible that I'll be saying the same thing next year about '06 :(.
Best
Erick |
