There you go Soro. More bad news for ya!
Time to go enjoy Christmas.
As all you whiners sit and enjoy the holidays, you should be really grateful for the country you live in. Look at history! the U.S is the most tolerent world power ever. We are all very lucky to be on this side of the world. Its not perfect, but nothing is.
A Canadian perspective
Cheers to all, even to the Soro's and the Geo's of the world :)
Daily Technical Outlook
Ralph Acampora
Managing Director, Global Equity Research
12/6/2004 11:18:24 AM
This outlook is based on Ralph Acampora's technical analysis and constitutes opinions which are subject to change. Contact a financial professional with any questions you may have. Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results and there is no assurance that his forecasts will be attained.
Last Friday The Market Was Mixed—This Is Part Of The Up Trend That Commenced For Most Indexes In August. This Upward Bias Is The Second Leg Of Our Cyclical Bull Market Which We Believe Will Carry Into The New Year.
Monday’s Commentary
HIGHLIGHTS
The advance/decline lines are still in their upward biases—they represent one of the main reasons we are bullish for the New Year. We see any hesitation as a buying opportunity.
The bond market rallied briskly last Friday taking the yield on the 10-Year Treasuries back to the 4.2% level. We believe that this reaction is part of the bottoming action in interest rates. Over time we expect rates to work their way higher.
The US dollar remains in a dramatic down trend. The next area of support is at the 79/80 level—this represents the dollar’s 1991, 1992 and 1995 lows.
Gold is consolidating at current levels. This is constructive in our view. We still have a target of $468.
A classic head and shoulder top pattern was confirmed when crude fell below the $46 level. We have a near-term target to the $41/$42 area and an intermediate term objective of $34/$35.
DISCUSSION
The following technical commentary is meant to provide a brief short-term overview of the market as measured by the major averages. This note will also include technical commentary that relates to those companies that were included in the Prudential Equity Group, LLC morning institutional fundamental research call that we believe are timely on a technical basis.
Our Fearless Forecast For 2005 calls for the continuation of the cyclical bull market that commenced in October 2002. So far the Value Line Composite is up 112% underscoring the broadness of the advance to date. We used the “measured move” concept in technical analysis to generate the upside targets for the leading averages:
Index Potential Upside Target For 2005
Dow Jones Industrial 13264.54
S&P 500 473.53
NASDAQ Composite 2796.16
Russell 2000 797.42
Source: Prudential Equity Group, LLC
Technical Indicators We Believe Support This Cyclical Bull Market:
The Lowry Report of supply and demand.
The point and figure bullish percent calculations.
The weekly MACD of the S&P 500.
The Decennial Cycle.
Two Inter Market Factors We Believe Support This Cyclical Bull Market:
The anticipated weakness in future crude prices.
A slow rise in the yield of the 10-Year Treasuries.
Style Strategy:
Growth is expected to continue to outperform value.
Small and mid cap stocks are expected to continue to outperform large cap early in 2005.
Why We Are Publishing Our Forecast Earlier Than Usual?
This cyclical bull is already 26 months old. The longest cyclical bull we witnessed was 31 months. So time is of the essence in our view.
The second leg of our measured move is already 3 ½ months old and these moves are usually very quick. Hence, we wanted to get our message out as quickly as possible.
Primary & Secondary Parameters-For The Major Large-Cap Equity Averages
Dow Jones Industrial Average Primary Support = 10,417.08 intra-day low (11/29/04)
Secondary Support = 9,708.40 intra-day low (10/25/03)
Primary Resistance = 10,753.63 intra-day low (2/19/04)
Standard & Poor's 500 Primary Support = 1,090.19 intra-day low (10/25/04)
Secondary Support= 1,062.23 (8/06/04)
Primary Resistance = 1250/1260 Area(May, 2001)
NASDAQ Composite
Primary Support = 1,899.33 intra-day low (10/15/04)
Secondary Support = 1,750.82 intra-day low (8/13/03)
Primary Resistance = 2,153.83 intra-day high (1/26/04)
Russell 2000 Primary Support = 558.36 intra-day low (9/28/04)
Secondary Support = 541.96 intra-day peak (8/31/04)
Primary Resistance = N/A
Source: Prudential Equity Group,LLC |
