Gary and all,
A good point about breadth. I have not addressed this before and will now.
Looking at Russell 2000
barchart.com and
timely.com
Chart looks strong, on a short term up trend, above MA and well positioned inside the Bollinger bands.
Either the midcaps will soon join the big caps, or the SPX will
recover.
It will be quite puzzling if midcaps will reach new highs while big caps fall below the most important SPX 900 support.
I do not concieve small caps as undervalued. One small cap I've been following was SNDK. I got in @12 1/2 and out @ 20 1/4.
After CEO appeared on CNBC it jumped to 30.
It is a well positioned, well managed co., which I thought to be undervalued @12-14, and overvalued @25-30.
Scenarios for next week:
1. Breaking SPX 900- 60% chance
Tue open slightly up, Dow maybe 20 points, and turns negative within two hours. Accelerating down to -120 and closing -90
Russell -3
Wed opens slightly up, strengthening to up 80, closing up 20.
Russell +1
Thu down 120 futures negative after close. Russell -5
Fri down 250 closing down 180. Russell -9
2. Not breaking SPX 900 - 30% chance
Tue opens up 40 strenghening to up 80 Russell up 2-3 points.
Wed up 40-50 closing up 90. Russell up 4
Thu down 60
Fri ??
3. Breaking SPX 900 and Russell to new high - 10% chance
Tue like scenario 1 but Russell up 2
Wed up 80 closing up 50. Russell up 3
Thu down 60 Russell down 2
Fri down 90 Russell down 1
This is just one man's opinion.
Last Week I was lucky. My partner has a saying- Once is incidental, twice is coincidendal, thrice is a method.
ATG |
