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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 54.14

-1.7%

2:38 PM EST

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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (14942)	12/26/2004 7:08:30 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) of 52153

>>too unrelated to the biology<< Saying that cold symptoms can't be caused by a cold virus is hardly unrelated to biology. In the summer of 2003, the known human cases of SARS were those of people who become ill during the flu season, and even among those, the symptoms (and case fatality rates) varied markedly by age. The virus had also benn mutating throughout the flu season, so predicting symptoms for the summer was pretty much guess work. The Winnipeg lab released sequence data which clearly was from SARS CoV. Unfortunately, they had contaminated the samples with their positive controls and the sequences they attributed to the nursing home samples came from lab contamination. There was media speculation on a Son of SARS CoV and I posted that since there were two sequences, and both were exact matches of known SARS isolates (which had already muttaed extensively), Son of SARS arguments were nonsense. I have commented quite a bit on both SARS and Avian flu and the comments in dozens of media stories are linked below for all to see and make their own decisions about predictive value and accuracy. recombinomics.com The CDC and WHO blew the case fatality rates badly with regard to SARS and they have similar problems with avian flu I warned WHO about the situation in Korea many weeks ago recombinomics.com Its a serious situation and will be widely covered, although coverage at this time is limited to mainland China recombinomics.com As far as your Aria trading was concerned, you had posted about how much money you made by trading Aria before the news was out, and I simply asked if you were trading on insider information (based on the claims you posted), which I don't recall you ever answering. Maybe I just missed it.

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