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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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From: CalculatedRisk	12/28/2004 10:51:55 AM
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The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index Rebounds In December December 28, 2004 The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which had been on the decline since August, rebounded in December. The Index now stands at 102.3 (1985=100), up from 92.6 in November. The Expectations Index rose to 99.9 from 90.2. The Present Situation Index increased to 105.9 from 96.3. The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS NFO. TNS NFO is one of the TNS group of companies (LSE: TNN). The cutoff date for December’s preliminary results was December 20th. “The continuing economic expansion, combined with job growth, has consumers ending the year on a high note,” says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center. “The most significant contributor to the rebound in confidence has been the overall improvement in current conditions over the past twelve months. And consumers’ outlook suggests that the economy will continue to expand in the first half of the new year.” Consumers’ assessment of current conditions was significantly more favorable than last month. Those claiming business conditions are “good” increased to 24.4 percent from 23.2 percent, while those claiming conditions are “bad” fell to 17.8 percent from 20.2 percent. The employment picture also improved in December. Consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” increased to 19.4 percent from 17.1 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” declined to 26.4 percent from 28.0 percent. Consumers’ outlook for the next six months was more upbeat. Those expecting business conditions to improve rose to 22.0 percent from 20.3 percent last month. Those anticipating business conditions to worsen fell to 7.7 percent from 11.4 percent. The labor market outlook was also more optimistic. Consumers expecting fewer jobs to become available in the coming months declined to 15.5 percent from 19.3 percent. However, those anticipating more jobs to become available eased to 16.2 percent from 17.6 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to improve in the months ahead edged up to 20.7 percent from 19.2 percent last month. conference-board.org

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