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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 681.53

+0.2%

Dec 2 4:00 PM EST

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (42045)	12/29/2004 3:05:54 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 68565

CIEN Conference call notes from clearstation.com: From: TomTomBoomBang Replying To : TomTomBoomBang (post 4710) Dec 10 2004 1:21PM Title: 12 analsyts: mostly steady w/ up tgts on Q rpt CIEN - Ciena-CIEN strong Qtr but wouldn't chase stock opinion @ COWN - New product sales were better, but sustainability a question, and high ASP legacy products were stronger, but see pricing being renegotiated down shortly when contracts expire. Little progress has been made toward profitability, and we think the valuation is unwarranted. Previously Cowen: SG Cowen Says bloated cost structure will prevent co. from becoming profitable; says customers seem to be losing faithbelieve stk lacks a n-t catalyst@COWN - While its shares are depressed, we do not believe that there are any near-term material catalysts that would justify investment ---------------- CIEN - Ciena-CIEN channel checks say limited demand for long-haul transport- opinion @ BUCK - Making CIEN increase its qtr revenue run rate by 60-80% to breakeven. We don't think they will win enough major contracts in the near-term to bring back sustainable growth in 2005. ------------ - CIEN - Ciena-CIEN raising target to $2.50 but they have a lot of work to do- opinion @ DBAB - Raising target on strong Q3 sales but we remain on the sidelines hoping for real earnings in the future. -------------- CIEN - Ciena-CIEN initiating with a Net Negative opinion @ SUSQ - Believe increased weakness in optical products will add to the revenue shortfall problem as 2005 continues to progress -------------- CIEN Ciena Corporation analyst @ MOKE (Morgan Keegan) weakenst Says prospects for restoring growth appear more challenging ---------------- CIEN Ciena-CIEN new pdcts gained some traction but not enough; opinion @ BOFA We believe shares are adequately valued --------------- CIEN analyst opinion @ JMPS: Ciena-CIEN good Qtr, but do not see a compelling investment opportunity- -------------------- CIEN Ciena Corporation opinion @ Credit Suisse First Boston fortifies Cites strong Q4 operating performance 12/10/2004 ---------------- CIEN Ciena-CIEN remain skeptical of sustained solid revenue growth, opinion @ SBSH The stock is now overbough but we're raising tgt to $2.40 ---------------- CIEN Ciena-CIEN 4Q in-line w/our est; improving rev trends but cash burn a concern opinion @ BEST steady Sequential revenue growth this quarter was broad based and strength came from the DN Wavesmith product and core DWDM. Next qtr we expect sales to grow for the DN, broadband access, optical ethernet while DWDM should most likely decline. Opex as percentage of sales continues to remain high; we don't expect CIEN to breakeven in the next few quarters. Increasing our loss per share estimates for 1Q and 2005; maintain 06 estimates. Valuation remains aggressive- ---------------- CIEN Ciena-CIEN analyst opinion @ FBCO fortifies: Upgrading, raising 2005 estimates to (.17c) from (.20c) & target to $2.75 from $2.25 due to near-term momentum. Although we are upgrading CIEN, we believ that their improved business outlook is reflected in shares & investors should not be in a rush to accumulate shares at these levels. ------------------ Ciena-CIEN analyst opinion @ PIPR steady: raised estimates and target on strong FYQ4; We raised our 2005 revenue estimate to $355M and our target to $2.50

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