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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (23864)	12/29/2004 12:33:10 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) of 110194

NAR's existing home sales number is actually one of the most accurate numbers available to the public. The adjustments, unlike unemployment rate, are also the easy to understand. Everyone who follows the real estate sector should have a gut feel as to what had driven the markets in the last twelve months. While we can make logical adjustments going forward, the NAR methodology is a reflection of actuals and must adjust accordingly with no regards to actual trends. e.g. at 6,940,000 rate, we need a simple avg of 578,333 sales per month to meet that expectation. Look at CY2004. Is the 578k per month expectation realistic?

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