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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (57795)12/29/2004 11:30:41 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
Jay, it's nice to see others attuned to the fuller picture of what might be. Or might not. I would not assume that China would be bound by their territory, nor Russia their's if manoeuvres required more distant expeditions.

I suppose "on China's territory" could rightfully include international waters and no doubt will.

They didn't mention Russia's territory though, which would include the Kuril islands.

King George II is not at all busy in Mesopotamia. That's a land skirmish in cities and towns, which is definitely not the forte of the USA military, which is strong on high-tech, open-battlefield, set-piece battles between states with the usual hierarchies, infrastructure and populations.

The USA has fleets idling around the oceans wondering what to do to keep their skills up to par. They aren't stuck around Iraq.

Currency gyrations should be fun. Americans holding US$ are in a better position than aliens holding them. It seems odd for China and the its clones to hold US$ while playing last man standing with armed-to-the-teeth USA citizens. I suppose there would be a pre-emptive currency move to show what might happen if push comes to shove. Trade with China is large.

Winning the manoeuvres without the battle, or currency tumult, or trade blockades, is no doubt the plan.

This is likely to be a problem for CDMA royalties out of China. Fortunately, QUALCOMM is charging such low royalties for CDMA sales in China that the loss would be neither here nor there. The loss of ASIC sales would be more of a problem. As usual, there would be a LOT more losers than winners in the event of conflict and trade disruption.

I wonder if Hu Jintao and Vladimir will misunderestimate King George II.

<I am fearful that your King George has single handedly revived an age-old game in which the US has had only 250 years of practice during its lucky time. >

Jay, that's a common mistake. Countries don't have experience. People do. Every person knows only what has happened to them in their lifetime. That's why countries which are supposedly 100 years behind, can catch up in 20 years, a single generation, which is the time it takes an infant to grow up. They skip all the old stuff.

The USA history goes as far back as China's and everyone else's, right back to the stone age, via olde Europe, back and back through the centuries.

Mqurice
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