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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (21891)12/30/2004 12:26:22 AM
From: Math Junkie  Read Replies (1) of 42834
 
Why are you being so suspicious? I may argue with you about the implications of it, but if there's data that I have access to that you'd like to see, I'll be happy to give it to you (assuming it's not too labor-intensive).

"If you want to get at an opportunity cost, it would apply to just that independent trade and is not offset by other parts of the portfolio."

That's easily done. You can look up the performance of QQQQ for the period in question and compare it to whatever benchmark you like.

The average dividend-adjusted price for QQQQ for the week of 10/16/2000 was $81.12. It's currently $40.02, for a loss of 50.7%.

The average dividend-adjusted price for SPY for the week of 10/16/2000 was $128.94. It's currently $121.36, for a loss of 5.9%.

table.finance.yahoo.com

table.finance.yahoo.com

table.finance.yahoo.com

table.finance.yahoo.com

Now comes the part where I argue with you about the implications: It is still true that anyone who followed Portfolio I except for putting 50% of cash reserves in QQQQ outperformed a buy-and-hold investment in SPY since then. Brinker-bashers often complain about "cherry-picking" Brinker's advice, but if you want an honest evaluation of his work, then you need to avoid cherry-picking in reverse, too. The fact is that his market timing more than made up for the QQQQ blunder.

Whether the modest outperformance was worth the heartburn is another question, of course.
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