Kenneth - Re: "but this, for some reason strikes me as the most specific(timewise) and most bullish comment of yours I can remember.
Am I reading to much into it?"
You have made a good observation. I rarely predict any time frames for a given stock to do any thing.
A couple or three months ago I stated my belief that the Intel's malaise (at that time) could only be broken by their introduction of devices on their 0.25 micron process. This they did, about two months ago, and the "official" announcement will be Sept. 8.
As per Intel's Modus Operandi, They will make the Tillamook announcement (low power, 0.25 micron Pentium MMX, high speed) along with their customers - please see Post no. 30773.
Also, Intel's second 0.25 micron fab (Fab 12) should be ramping up production as of Sept. 2, 1997, and two more will be on stream by early next year.
This process will be Intel's vehicle to make "Intel" profits on advanced Pentium MMX and Pentium II/Deschutes chips by getting the die size down so as to improve overall die/wafer production.
New devices and the new process will combine to give Intel a substantial advantage over their already minimal competition. The price reductions introduced over the past several months appear to be stimulating demand for PC's (via lower system prices).
Internet use and expansion will drive Server sales, PC/Clients are increasing, performance is increasing at unprecedented rates, new graphics technology (AGP and its variants) are starting to appear, Windows NT 4.0 (and soon 5.0) will accelerate corporate upgrade cycles, the overall business climate is excellent, etc.
All bricks seem to be in place for a worldwide build out of the computing infrastructure.
Intel will lead this expansion and reap the benefits - as will it's shareholders.
After this burst over the next 18 months, Intel has the Wilammette and the Merced to add two new kickers to this expansion come 1999. Technologically, Intel will move forward unabated.
As Intel's high end competition (SGI, SunW) move off their rock-solid proprietary silicon foundations, and "embrace" x86 silicon pervasiveness and unprecedented performance, more fuel will be added to the Intel boilers. Large enterprise applications will move onto Intel architecture using these companies' O/S's, making up for Microsofts' limited NT capability in large SMP applications.
Intel and its stock are positioned to steam ahead.
Paul |
