One partial option left is for the US to more strongly push an Kurdish/Shia run government, and try to isolate the jihadis to the Sunni population.
By arming and supporting the Kurds especially and select Shia, there is the possiblity of establishing an Iraqi run government with very few Sunnis in positions of power. Such a government would not need to be democratic - it could be "Saddam lite" or even "Islamic Republic lite". A democratic government would almost always be precieved as weak, and would invite continued insurgency. Such a government could stay in power for a long, long time.
A non-Sunni or even anti-Sunni government which looked like it would be firmly established would be a great threat to the Sunnis, and could push them to move against the jihadists.
Even if the Sunnis did not move away from the jihadists, a Kurdish - Shia coalition would have a great interest in surpressing the jihadis.
In other words, turn a political conflict into an ethnic one, then offer to protect the minority (Sunnis) with the price of cooperation in suppressing the jihadis. Not much cooperation, not much protection - just the continual supply of arms, money signals intellignece, and supplies to the new Iraqi (Kurdish + Shia) government.
If the Sunnis don't cooperate, well, the US bases will mostly be in the Norht and West, and we can't be responsible for the internal actions of the Iraqi government...
Wonder if the Bush adminnistration is nasty enough to do this ? |
