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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Neocon who wrote (154965)12/31/2004 1:42:38 PM
From: michael97123  Read Replies (3) of 281500
 
I think Stratfor has an accurate appraisil of the current situation, regrettably so I may add. As i have been saying we have made operational mistakes early on, not the least of which was to take out Falujah after Saddam was caught. We, as a nation, do not have the will to persist in this strategy for long the length of time necessary to get to a successful ending by your definition of democratic iraq. No one wants the probable civil war but perhaps like our own, its just plain unavoidable and even necessary. The Kurds have done well and given the pullback position for our forces if i understand them correctly, the Shiaa will have a chance to balance support they will be getting from both iran and the US. Perhaps it will even be possible to tighten up the borders so the jihadists have a tougher time getting to the triangle. I have been thinking LBJ/Mac/1965-1966 for a long time now as the appropriate vietnam comparison to this war. Think of how many lives would have been saved if LBJ told MacNamara to take a hike. Bush needs to listen to sensible people and not failed Defense Secretarys or overly optimistic military assessments. If he does, he and follow George Aitkens advice to LBJ in 1966, Declare Victory and in this case consolidate gains already made. After all Saddam is in prison, Kurds and Shiaa are free, and the other states of the region will still have american forces to contend with on or about their borders. Mike
PS By the way, no reason to rule out your special ops in the triangle because we have ceased military ops there. Zarquawi without our presence may actually be replaced by nationalist forces who might be more open to ally with folks who will help them get rid of the jihadists they now are in tactical alliance with.
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