Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: RealMuLan who wrote (20083)	12/31/2004 5:31:28 PM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (1) of 116555

Interesting. In about 1975 I got into the semiconductor biz as a junior process technician. I would listen to the knowledgeable engineers of those times make their personal views known on the IC business. They used to say things like this... "So we are going to be a record expansion in the IC business? This only happens just before there is a record number of bankruptcies in the business". These were relatively young guys in their late 20's maybe 30's and I was a real young punk -g- they knew lots though. Now I'm nearly 50 and seen so many of the yo yo swings in the semi business. 300 mm wafers, loads of cheap 200 mm capacity on the market (and now installed) tells me we might be in for a record stuffing of the channel supply wise.

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