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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 339.88+0.3%Dec 24 4:00 PM EST
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To: marc ultra who wrote (2965)1/1/2005 4:43:22 AM
From: marc ultra  Read Replies (2) of 10065
 
Happy New Year everyone. Hope all is well. I've been thinking about the outlook for 2005 and reviewing the last secular bear of 1966-82. The big question IMO is when will this cyclical bull end and the next cyclical bear begin. I'm working under the assumption which is Bob's and many others that we started a secular bear in 2000.

One thing that sticks out like a sore thumb is that virtually all 4 cyclical bulls started (and thus all 5 cyclical bears bottomed), in or very close to what Bob has called off-presidential election years. Namely 1966, '68, 70, 74, 78, and the final cyclical as well as secular bear low was 1982 starting the megabull.

Let's say there is a good probability of this cycle repeating itself now in the current secular bear. That would mean we would look for the next cyclical bear bottom to occur in 2006. I will then conjecture that the current cyclical bull will end likely sometime in 2005 with a cyclical bear then starting that will bottom in 2006. The timing makes sense given the power and length of the current cyclical bull which would have to stretch well beyond the normal 3 year max to keep going another couple of years. Also I don't think fundamentals and sentiment indicators suggest this cyclical bull will extend an unusually long time.

So I'll make a soft prediction that this bull will end later this year. I'd keep an eye on the factors that Bob has said in the past kill bull markets like excessive growth, rising rates with tight money and I think overvaluation.

Finally, I look forward to the potential of a bear in which a top can be successfully exited prior to the start of. If we go with the assumption we're in a secular bear than that's the way to make money, as buy and hold should fail.
Marc
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