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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Ish who wrote (154992)1/1/2005 12:00:05 PM
From: michael97123  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
"I'd go with both. US troops are getting smarter and sooner or later the Iraqi people will get tired of being killed and turn on the insurgents."

Ish,
I think you and NC are being quite naive on this point. I saw a general or former general on TV a week ago. What he said was like yogi berra said--deja vu all over again. He said the US would win in iraq because:
1. Now that the Triangle had become a terrorist haven, we had to win and;
2. Because we have the best soldiers.

The conclusion doesnt follow from this generals points. We can still lose or tie even if both points are true. So i go back to the Stratfor piece and try to determine what would be the best alternative post elections. The hardest thing for this admin to accept is that iraq was probably winnable earler on before the operational screwups post Victory. Woulda, coulda, shoulda, doesnt work in betting on the horses and wont work here as well. We are where we are and our govt should be making policy from this point forward and not from what coulda been. Mike
PS Declare victory-stress shiaa and kurds--most americans will buy in--iraqis will fight each other in and around the triangle--we can influence events from fall back positions in the south, west and north--my belief is shiaa will welcome iran offset of US presence--if iran makes trouble for us on the border, we should cross it and punish their forces--influence syria to help iraqi nationalists settle in the triangle and eliminate the terrorists and zarquawi like in "Black September" for the PLO in Jordan.
If all this happens, we win 90% of what we tried to achieve. If we dont succeed we still have 14 out of 18 provinces making some progress toward popular rule, with the oil securely under kurdish and shiaa control.
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