While some of your "reasons" relate not to "going to war", but rather to continuing presence there, you've raised some interesting issues. Why do you think a divided Iraq is likely and, besides Turkey's fear that a separate Kurdish state in northern Iraq might cause problems with Kurds inside Turkey, what downside do you see to a divided Iraq?
The Kurdish north would be oil rich and democratic, I think most would agree. The Shiite south (also oil rich), some might expect, could become more like Iran, but I doubt it. The Shia leadership has made it pretty clear they don't want that. The Sunni middle is a bigger questionmark. It would have little oil, so it could become a threat to its new neighbors if it wants to capture oil rich territory. I would also likely be a haven for terrorists as they are already there and would be useful in attacking the Shia and Kurds.
I think such a breakup would be a last resort for the Shia and Kurds, though. The area would be more stable as one nation, not three. And I don't think it will take another strongman, as you suggest, to hold the country together. It will take leadership that the majority sees as legitimate, which from all current indications means a freely elected leadership, and that is willing to enforce the nation's laws justly.
The Shia, the certain political majority, has not, to my knowledge, shown any inclination toward punishing the Sunni population generally for past injustices or otherwise "dominate" them like Saddam did to the Shia. I think they're smart enough to realize that doing so would only destabilize the nation, threaten democratic reform, and threaten their newfound political power.
The Kurds, likewise, have an interest in stability and democratic reform. They certainly won't "align" with either Baathist or Islamist Sunni insurgents as either one would be a direct threat to their freedom. To the extent the Sunni population participates to ensure the new government doesn't come to be dominated by Shia religious elements (i.e. less secular and more theocratic), then you might see some political cooperation between Sunnis and Kurds, but as I said before, Shia leadership (including Sistani) has indicated that it does NOT want an Iranian-styled theocracy.
Overall, I think your "all possible outcomes are bad" outlook is overly pessimistic and probably colored that way by your total opposition to the war in the first place. You can't see any possibility of a positive outcome because that might imply that one or more of the justifications for the war was right and the doomsayers were wrong.
PS: The first and only reason for pulling out will be because the job is done and the democratic government of Iraq has said they no longer need our help. And it will come in phases, with troop reductions coming as Iraqi government forces grow and more of the country is secure. What I wonder is what kind of distorted logic will be employed here to describe it all as a big failure. |
