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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: J.T. who wrote (18792)1/1/2005 5:11:38 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
What's bashing and what's discussion -- sometimes it seems you are pretty sensitive, JT. Bernie had a pretty similar forecast last year, eh? yep, he missed badly.

care to share your targets? -- it's ok if you don't want to.

I'm not very good at forecasting the indices, but I think there are some macro things that can be forecast pretty easily here:

1) Housing bust

2) Further debacle in the Middle East -- probably including bloody civil war in Iraq ( I mean bloodier than what is going on now)

3) An attendant loss of popularity for Bush if more troops are called up or the draft is re-instated (remember Bush 1's no new taxes -- now Bush 2 is on record saying no reinstatement of the draft)

4) Increased surveillance here of law-abiding citizens or groups that become more vocal against the war effort

5) Some large bailout of an important creditor (looking for this in the 2nd quarter of 2005)

Any of these could have bearish or bullish implications depending on the way they turn out -- but volatility indices are scraping multi-year lows -- are they discounting nirvana?? can 2005 deliver?

At any rate it will be interesting ... money to be made LONG and SHORT, I am sure.

Do you think Bush is really going to make any cuts in the budget like all the talk we've been hearing??
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