Well, here're the latest rumours on AMD:
1. B of A reaffirms its price target of $14 for AMD in 2005 as not only has Nas peaked at 2175 but AMD's lineup is just no longer competitive!
2. Rumoured 1M cpu's stolen and many remarked and recycled thus grossly dampening Q4 results (and hence Q4 CPG revenues down sequentially!).
3. AMD CPU's have been "Dusted2000" off by Gateway!
4. 90nm product is in short supply which "obviously" means ramping problems at 90nm!
5. Sempron ramp is slow in North America meaning Sempron is a huge failure!
6. The Au1200 is a waste of AMD resources!
7. The delay in establishing a Q4 earnings date means all of the above are true and not only will AMD lose $100M on the flash side but at least $50M on the CPG side as a result of the much publicized theft resulting in a sizeable red Q4 EPS!
Now for some reality, but it does look like we'll need strong Q4 earnings to ward off the latest quarterly willy-nilly's suffered by some in our midst:
1. B of A was wrong 3 months ago when calling for $14 when AMD was at $15 as is all too obvious at AMD's current $21.50 and Bof A is likely to be far more wrong in 2005 as AMD closes the gap with AAPL at $63! (They'll be consistent anyway, consistently wrong that is!)
2. Stealing has been going on for a long period of time and has dampened Q1, Q2 and Q3 CPG results. Without the thefts, AMD would have recorded $100M more revenues in Q3 for an astounding $777M in Q3 CPG revenues and a Q3 EPS of $0.35! (It's rumoured that INTC has funded this "dirty tricks" group out of their excess funds in their marketing division...It's legal as long as it can't be proven!)
3. Semprons haven't been "Dusted2000" off at all! Gateway has delayed their increased support for AMD product pending "the big" imminent AMD announcement of a major product enhancement!
4. AMD's 90nm product is so much in demand that there is not a hope in hell of AMD meeting the demand no matter how quickly the 90nm ramp occurs...and the 90nm ramp is evolving far more rapidly than even the most optimistic estimates of 6 months ago!
5. Sempron has been so successful in China and India that AMD has had to fast track its Chartered alliance in order to meet insatiable Sempron demand. Oh, and not unimportantly, Sempron's profit margins are far superior to Athlon XP's!
6. The Au1200 has more profit margin potential than Opteron and Opteron's profit margin potential is HUGE as will become all too obvious in 2005!
7. The delay in setting a Q4 earnings date is the result of extensive discussions with the AMD's current set of Chartered Accountants with the objective of masking huge profits so as not to embarrass the analysts who are estimating $0.19 for Q4. Rumour has it that the extended discussions have been successful in only masking a portion of Q4's unbelievable growth in revenue and profit margin and consequently, even with considerable masking of real profit margins, AMD will be forced to "blow away" analyst consenses at $0.19!
Overview: No matter how much profit margin is masked by AMD and its accountants in Q4, it is still glaringly obvious that AMD has entered an earnings expansion phase that, in 2005, is likely to outstrip AAPL's by a wide margin! (Oh yes, and in case you missed it, AAPL is currently trading at $63 and AMD at $21.47!) |
