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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 152.72-0.2%Jan 28 3:59 PM EST
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To: Jim Mullens who wrote (43986)1/4/2005 3:19:48 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer   of 197418
 
Jim, my QCOM target by year end '05 is about $55 to $60, or a gain of about 35% for the year. Factored into my target are the following assumptions:

1. The overall market doesn't collapse due to the reckless fiscal policies of the administration and the continuing declining value of the dollar against foreign currencies.

2. The overall market (i.e., S&P 500) remains in a range of +5% to -7% from its current level.

3. The devastation from the tsunami results in higher than expected expansion of wireless facilities, especially in India, Indonesia, Thailand, and Sri Lanka.

4. Demand for data based wireless communications in countries using GSM results in adoption of WCDMA at a pace at least as fast as that currently taking place.

5. Wireless data communication applications for security purposes (natural disasters as well as terrorist motivated) create a rapidly growing market that can be filled only by some form of broadband CDMA or CDMA using satellite transmissions (e.g., using Globalstar or other satellite based facilities).

I'm fairly comfortable with at least a $55 target under these conditions and note that QCOM has enough cash flow to warrant either increasing its dividend or buying back shares, both of which actions would increase the share price.

Art
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