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Technology Stocks : Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates -- VSEA

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To: BMcV who wrote (1686)1/5/2005 3:34:29 AM
From: etchmeister  Read Replies (1) of 1929
 
FWIW MF quoted Varian exposure to DRAM;
now while this might be true I don't see reason why Varian can not make inroads into logic customer and making inroads is probably top priority for VSEA.
And if I recall correctly a year ago MF downgraded making snotty remarks about the new single wafer implanter.
I think BofA's chip and equipment research is one of the biggest lemons out there

After the cycle "peaked" he discovers that his earnings estimate is almost off by 70% - shit happens

<<July 22, 2004
10:35 am EDT... LAM RESEARCH (LRCX 22.56) UP 2.76, POSTS $0.38 Q4 EPS. BANC OF AMERICA UPGRADES TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL... Analyst Mark FITZGERALD tells salesforce view on cycle has not changed but his estimate of peak earnings for co. has changed radically, now forecasts $2.36 FY 05 (Jun) EPS vs. prior $1.37 estimate... Says there three trends that factor into his more optimistic view or peak earnings: 1) stronger top-line growth fueled by market share gains, higher capital intensity of etch in advanced logic fabs, 2) better leverage in model, 3) co. has paid back convertible bond cuting its share count by 7M-8M shares... Has $30.70 tgt, 13x peak $2.36 FY 05 EPS est.>>
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