Bush-The Mastermind behind 9/11? Message Board

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Politics : Bush-The Mastermind behind 9/11?

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To: Don Earl who wrote (9564)	1/5/2005 3:17:04 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) of 20039

Hi Don, Your disparagement of the Peak Oil theory seems to rest upon some very shaky ground. You say: Even by the lower proven and recoverable estimates by the oil industry, there is currently over a 120 year supply at 22 million barrels per day. With current consumption on the planet at 78 MMbpd and expected to rise to 110-120 MMbpd in 2025, I fail to see the relevance of a steady supply of 22 MMbpd. Please advise. *** Re: The Peak Oil theory is absurd on its face. The Peak Oil theory is a proven scientific fact. Predicted by M. King Hubbert at a petroleum geology conference in 1956, the theory was immediately disparaged as far-fetched lunacy by the preponderance of oil industry geologists in attendance. Hubbert predicted Peak Oil in the U.S. to be imminent, set to occur in the early 1970s. And that is exactly what happened. Don, you must realize that in 1973 there was a surplus capacity in the world's oil supply system of 25%. In spite of that huge supply overhang, manipulation of the supply was able to dramatically impact the price of a barrel of oil. The situation that we face today is dramatically different. Instead of a 25% cushion in oil supplies, the world now has a surplus of 1% or perhaps as high as 2% of daily demand. I.e., there is no cushion. The industry is producing flat out, and there are no new giants like Ghawar or Prudhoe Bay in the pipeline. In fact, no giants have been discovered since the 1970s. I would strongly encourage you to educate yourself about the reality we face. Two of the best writers on the topic of Peak Oil are Ken Deffeyes and Robert Heinberg. I greatly admire the thoroughness and honesty of their considerable scholarship. Peak Oil is real. Hell, even the National Geographic magazine ran a feature on the topic this past summer. You are in a distinct minority with your ostrich-like attitude to what is going on in the awl patch. :)

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