Sorry about that. I used US consumption instead of world consumption. That would make it 35 years worth.
RE: "The Peak Oil theory is a proven scientific fact. Predicted by M. King Hubbert at a petroleum geology conference in 1956, the theory was immediately disparaged as far-fetched lunacy by the preponderance of oil industry geologists in attendance. Hubbert predicted Peak Oil in the U.S. to be imminent, set to occur in the early 1970s. And that is exactly what happened.... In fact, no giants have been discovered since the 1970s."
According to Forbes:
"Reserves are not fixed. Proven reserves in 1971: 612 billion
barrels. Since then the world has produced 767 billion--and still has 1,028 billion left."
keepmedia.com
So, consumption is currently at 28 billion barrels per year and the average rate of discovering new proven reserves is at 35 billion barrels per year over the past 34 years.
Where is the peak if oil is constantly being discovered faster than it can be used?
It costs a ton of money to produce new seismic surveys and drill new wells. With a 35 year supply on the shelf, how fast are the oil companies likely to over invest and over produce to the point they create a glut that will only destroy their profit margins?
The real issue is virtually every company in the oil patch is run as if it's a private piggy bank for corporate insiders. The danger, and some of the symptoms being identified as resulting from "peak oil", is these companies are being gutted in the Enron tradition to a point where they may eventually no longer have the resources to invest in new production.
In that regard, 9/11 was probably, at least in part, a bail out package for a whole bunch of companies in the oil patch with some very ugly debt to equity ratios. Never the less, while most of the oil in the world does not belong to us, the theory that the world is just about out of the stuff is absurd. |
