Michael, I have great reservoirs of cynicism for government officials whose venality is pandemic. <the worlds intel agencies were duped by saddam, the nations had to make their decision based on that data. >
The world's intelligence agencies are notably unintelligent. Time after time they come up with the dopiest ideas. There's something about seeking power and being in government that renders otherwise intelligent people moronic. It's something to do with being part of a dominance hierarchy with no need to do other than ingratiate oneself to the bosses. In the commercial world, there's a countervailing need to ingratiate oneself with customers, which gives a semblance of rationality. In the political world, there's a need to keep voters in mind too, but voters aren't spending their own money, so there's a loss of causal relationships. Plus, governments are so big that they become diffuse and separated from reality.
But people go on voting for more of the same, all around the world, like turkeys voting for another Thanksgiving and an early Xmas.
Saddam didn't dupe the world's intelligence agencies. He was flat out trying to tell everyone that he didn't have weapons of mass destruction. They didn't want to believe him.
It was pretty obvious that if there were any, they weren't in any significant numbers or of particularly good effect. Recall the pathetic scud attacks on Israel during the 1990 war - they didn't have WMDs on board. They were misdirected fizzers. So he wasn't getting a whole lot lined up after that, with UN inspectors and USA spies crawling around Iraq.
Saddam didn't want USA spies targeting this, that and the other, while pretending to be UN helpers, so he sensibly booted them out.
Even at the beginning, he sought permission from the USA to deal with Kuwait draining an oil field which was in both Iraq and Kuwait. Glaspie gave him the green light, as instructed by her bosses in Washington. He knew to check it was okay. They knew he thought Kuwait should be part of Iraq.
They also knew that if Iraqi oil was off the market, it would be great for oil prices [high oil prices are GOOD in oily political circles such as Bushworld, contrary to what J6Pack might think].
Saddam, too late, realized what the game was after he'd taken over Kuwait, by throwing babies out of incubators [oh, hang on, that was more government intelligence - snigger]. He asked whether he pulled out would the sanctions be lifted. I thought, naively, of course they would. But Saddam knew better. Sure enough, he retreated under USA attack but the sanctions remained in place right up until the next war, some "oil for food" dubious activity notwithstanding.
The thing that puzzled me was why Bush I didn't proceed to Baghdad. I thought perhaps Saddam had claimed to have a nuke and he was saving it for a last gasp and had threatened to nuke Israel unless the USA stopped the attack. As it happens, with Pakistan selling noocular goodies [presumably including actual weapons - probably to North Korea], Saddam might well have had one or two.
Oil and energy industry profits have been stupendous since 1990, thanks to Iraqi oil being largely off the market, keeping prices high.
Anyway, here we are in 2005. Saddam is gaoled, Uday and Qusay dead - along with their crazy brothers in law who I still cannot understand going back to Iraq from Jordan to certain death [despite the claim that 'all is foregiven']. That was as nutty as Terry Waite getting kidnapped for a year or so [which was obviously going to happen - crazy!!]
Now everyone is fighting over Iraq's oil and rights to the palaces.
Where to next? There's no move on the New United Nations front, with dog-in-the-manger USA being anti; which will be to their regret in decades to come - another governmental blunder. So it'll be more of the same. Meanwhile, Hu Jintao and Vladimir Putin are planning manoeuvres on "China's territory" for the middle of the Year of the Rooster, aka Year of the Feather Duster [one minute he's strutting around like a rooster, the next, he's a feather duster].
"China's territory" of course means Taiwan.
If the USA had got the NUN geared up, China and Russia would be staring down a LOT bigger barrel than the Taiwanese and possibly some rumbling from the USA. Now, it's just a matter of who blinks first. More's the pity.
There is perhaps still time for the USA to call a dirty great UN reconstitution crisis convention to obviate what could turn out to be serious size catastrophe; North Korea/South Korea/Japan/Russia/Taiwan/USA are all headed for a collision in the Year of the Feather Duster.
People will be thinking that the recent tsunami wasn't really much of a problem by comparison. Neither is Iraq.
Anyway, on with the show. Let the "intelligence agencies" and governments demonstrate their intelligence once again.
Mqurice |
