The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: russwinter who wrote (24136)	1/6/2005 6:37:13 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) of 110194

two Q&A's on fleck's site tonight mirror the views of many here Q With the CRB appearing to roll over and a potential hard landing in China, isn't the details of how the Fed screws things up important? If poor economic growth (sated consumer and overleveraged economy) is the macro trend, then doesn't the Fed decide whether we see a deflationary bust or a stagflation/hyperinflations? If so doesn't this have investment implications? Thanks and welcome back. A• When the economy starts to sputter such that it is undeniable- then we can see how the Fed may influence the outcome. I expect they will then start easing and the dollar will really collapse- that has alway been my view. Whether that results in inflation or deflation, we must wait and see, but it will be very bulllish for gold imo. Q Given that Europe's economy appears to be fundamentally deteriorating and the strong Euro is not helping these matters, shouldn't we continue to expect the Euro to decline relative to the dollar (as it has since the new year). By extension, through no real fundamental improvement in the U.S. economy, the dollar would gain in strength relative to the Euro and since the precious metal markets seem to only care about a weak dollar in relation to the Euro, shouldn't we expect precious metal prices and mining stocks to fall? Dollar strength would probably hurt U.S. stocks but since the price of gold/silver seems to rise and fall on the basis of the strength of the dollar, I would also expect precious metals to do poorly. What am I missing? A• Currencies do not trade solely based on relative GDP growth rates... but even if they did, the USA would be in trouble as it is going to slow down markedly, in my view. The problem with the dollar is all of our imbalances and what the Fed will do once it becomes clear we are decelarating and stock and real estate bubbles pop... that is THE bull case for metals.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next