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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: ild who wrote (24164)	1/7/2005 11:14:05 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Date: Fri Jan 07 2005 10:35 trotsky (doran) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "o where’s the imminent crisis? Privatizers say the trust fund doesn’t count because it’s invested in U.S. government bonds, which are “meaningless IOU’s.” Readers who want a long-form debunking of this sophistry can read my recent article in the online journal The Economists’ Voice" on this point, Krugman is simply wrong imo. the government has spent the entire so-called 'surplus' of the SS fund - it has become an integral part of the govt.'s general budget. without it, the currently reported budget deficits would be 50% larger per annum. and the 'lock-box' ( a truly Orwellian name construct ) is indeed full of IOU nothings. it is simply a huge future govt. liability. Krugman is however right that the so-called 'privatization' scheme is to be distrusted. just not for the reasons he imagines ( one needs to remember that Krugman is a Keynesian statist who is always in favor of state control over every aspect of the citizen's lives. he's one of the most vocal critics of tax cuts, but he's not worried by government spending. much of what he has proposed over the years is downright evil from a libertarian PoV ) . more convincing objections regarding the proposed SS scheme have been raised by Mr. Rockwell here: mises.org Date: Fri Jan 07 2005 10:06 trotsky (pm stocks) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved this bounce is being sold into. that's bad news ( short term anyway ) - the sector has had largely positive money flows on the down days, but this isn't keeping up on the bounces apparently. so there's little reason to get overly enthusiastic over today's bounce. note also that it's once again narrowly based ( i.e. only a handful of big cap stocks are moving..the rest remains in a coma ) . what the sector needs is a strong broadly based up move on high volume and coupled with positive money flows ( per my measure of them ) . that would indicate a durable low from a technical perspective imo. until then one must assume that the correction isn't over yet...presumably the PoG needs to test its lower channel support rail ( or one of those rails - the nearest currently sits at about $412, but there are longer term channel supports further down ) .

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