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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options
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To: j g cordes who wrote (21540)9/1/1997 2:50:00 PM
From: Tom Trader   of 58727
 
Hi Jim--thanks for posting your thoughts

Not being too much of a Clancy fan -- may be, it is difficult for me to relate to the scenarios that you have described.

I guess my approach to trading is rather basic--after all anyone who is so enamoured of mechanical trading systems must be rather basic in his thinking:)

Like I said to OJ and others, I don't feel that the ingredients are in place for a prolonged decline of any consequence--and btw, I would view a decline of 10-15% as a "normal" and healthy decline. I think that the fly in the ointment is whether the problems in some of the other world markets might spill into the US markets. The fact that I am starting to again take small positions in the market would suggest that I think any spill-over will be limited.

However as you know, I place a great deal of emphasis on following the trend -- and the trend on a short and intermediate term is down. Unless interest rates spike up and/or downward momentum accelerates, I will continue to add to positions---but very carefully, in view of the trend. The missing ingredient at this time for a sustained rally of any consequence is the still neutral/bullish sentiment data--and that is why I earnestly hope that we have a sharp sell-off next week of another 5% or so before mounting any rally. IMO, any rally from current levels--though tradeable -- will fail and will probably turn out to be a great opportunity to set up short positions.

Hope you are enjoying your Labor day weekend
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