China punches below its weight - for now
By Dr Michael A Weinstein
It is common knowledge that China is the most important ascending world power, and one that has only begun to realize its economic and military potential. Before the World Trade Center bombings on September 11, 2001, neo-conservative strategists in Washington identified China as the most significant future threat to United States interests and they defined the Sino-American relation as one of "strategic competition" rather than a "strategic partnership". Although the "war on terrorism" has taken precedence over the longer term conflict with China in Washington's geostrategy, the neo-conservatives' pre-September 11 judgment was well founded and remains so.
For now, geo-strategically, or tactically, China is punching below its weight. But that may well change.
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Conclusion
Beijing's white paper on national defense and its application of the geostrategy presented there to holding war games with Moscow indicate realism, rationality and political maturity and sophistication. China's "ruling party" is aware of and forthright about the country's present limitations and has formulated a plausible strategy of "active defense" to overcome them over the next two decades.
Active defense means that Beijing will play a waiting game and punch below its weight until the regime feels that it is ready to act more assertively. As it gains strength, Beijing will expand its reach, as it has done in planning joint exercises with Russia. Barring unforeseeable crises that would disturb its progress toward becoming the undisputed regional power center of East and Southeast Asia, Beijing's major problems come from Washington and Tokyo, and from its perceived need to incorporate Taiwan in order to make its East Asian aspirations credible.
It is far from certain that Beijing will be able to finesse Washington and Tokyo, and, in the near term, to absorb Taiwan, but time seems to be on its side.
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