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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: RealMuLan who wrote (20737)1/7/2005 6:02:51 PM
From: RealMuLan  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
Survey warns of capacity issues
By John Griffiths in London
Published: January 7 2005 02:00 | Last updated: January 7 2005 02:00

Senior car industry executives will be warned today that they are deluding themselves if they believe the industry's chronic overcapacity is being brought under control.


A further 4m units of annual production need to be taken out before overcapacity drops below 20 per cent, according to professional services group KPMG.

Describing the overcapacity issue as "the biggest facing the sector", KPMG's annual survey of auto executive attitudes concludes that the responses of a large majority of those questioned were "overly optimistic".

"Seventy-five per cent of respondents claim that overcapacity is now less than 20 per cent . . . but we believe the real level is about 25 per cent," said Mike Steventon, head of automotive at KPMG in the UK.

The KPMG study indicates that most of the misplaced optimism concerns China.

"Although we expect sales to grow in future years, overcapacity will remain an issue for the next decade," the survey concludes. "Even with predicted sales of 3.1m in 2007, that would still mean that less than 60 per cent of capacity will be utilised."

While a number of vehicle makers have started to address overcapacity, Mr Steventon said: "It is not yet clear whether these [efforts] will be substantial enough to bring supply and demand back into balance to improve profitability."

The survey takes account of restructuring actions already taking place in the industry, such as General Motors shedding 12,000 jobs in Europe, and the expected removal of at least 200,000 units a year from production.

The survey also shows optimism over the ability of European manufacturers to increase global market share is on the wane as manufacturers in South Korea and other Asian nations undertake aggressive expansion.
news.ft.com
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