Weather Update, Mkt update, storm pictures,
Well, it appears Joe Bastardi of Accuweather was correct with a January Thaw, at least for the East, though if I remember correctly, he was expecting later in the month. Certainly I was NOT correct in my forecasts for my area in recent weeks.
But now it appears a cold lockdown for the East and my area (PA) will start middle of this coming week, right after record warm days and continue for 2 to 4 weeks. This according to Joe B and also some very good weather forums I follow.
We will see if this is enough to save the energy stocks, especially NG which has levels of storage to deal with.
As for my own winter forecast, I am tending to agree with the cold period as it fits my longer term forecast, albeit a few weeks late. But I will hold fire from saying high confidence, as I am waiting for my natural indicators to confirm, you see, I am still too busy kicking myself for discounting some natural indicators I observed right after
Christmas which indicated a warm spell was what was going to be locked in for awhile. In any case, a busy holiday schedule and then a death in the family prevented needed weather work on my part the last ten days.
An example of the wild weather, a tornado in Phoenix this time of year is rather rare I believe:
azfamily.com
As for the stock market, I've turned bearish, greatly reducing my holdings in NRS sectors and raising cash.
There are a number of things I don't like, such as, the dollar rally, heavy profit taking in first week of year,
bottom signals VXN/VXO, most of all the very heavy feel of NRS charts and tape.
I still hold majority of large NCEM position (a late stage bloomer in the PM sector) and a few other small positions, but cash levels are now up to 75% from 1% a month ago.
I'm not saying I am right in this or and certainly not that anyone should follow my lead, but I do have to follow my own indications and feel for the tape.
Best Regards,
Roebear |
