Personally, I doubt that will happen.
In some ways, I think we will create a situation something like Israel/Palestine: just because they hold elections in Israel does not at all mean there will be stability there.
I think there will be plenty of people in Iraq willing to try to destabilize the government. In fact, it might just get worse, not better. First, you have the total maniacs who just want anarchy. A small, but extremely determined bunch. Then, you have all the people who are NOT in power but want to be.... they can benefit from destabilization directly and indirectly, since it will increase the possibility they will gain power.
The one common thread through all the factions in Iraq except the one that is elected will be their resentment and even hatred of occupying American forces. The ones not in control will stir things up by asserting that the elected regime got their power by manipulating the vote, and by the US influencing things, and that the regime is merely a puppet government set up by Bush. I think that kind of talk will gain at least tacit approval from a pretty large segment of the Iraqis... some will completely agree, most will more or less agree. Even the ones who disagree will be unlikely to stand up and say anything contrary to this sort of propaganda. We have seen this already--- I have seen very little or no vocal opposition to terrorism/beheadings etc from any Iraqis, or from supposedly religious, moderate Muslims who make up the vast majority. They probably don't condone it, but also are unwilling to oppose it. We have seen this before in the Arab world with the attitude of the Arabs and Muslims towards Palestinian terrorism. Pretty spineless, if you ask me. In fact, in my book, that sort of thing is downright unconscionable. You have got to stand up for what you believe if you have any moral character at all, particularly in the face of such outrageously immoral behavior perversely disguised as religious fervor. But the reality is, for whatever reason, the rank and file Arabs and Muslims just won't stand up and speak out against terrorist acts and immoral, self-defeating behavior among their own kind. That has been their history for decades now, if not centuries.
I think OPEC will do far more for oil price stability than any elections in Iraq will.
And... I do agree that we will see much more stability in oil. I think it will settle into a more orderly trading range now, with a slight to moderate upward bias.
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