Roebear, you are absolutely correct, and this winter has been mild as well as last summer also being mild. Thus why isn't the price of NG $4 or less? Why is CL $45? Beats me!
from the Daily Oklahoman...
'Williams announced Friday its Transco natural gas pipeline system set a new peak day delivery record Dec 20.
The new record of 8.73 million dekatherms beat out the the previous record of 8.34 million dekatherms set on Jan 23, 2003.
Transco pipeline is a 10,500-mile natural-gas pipeline system that extends from the Gulf Coast of Texas to the New York metropolitan area.'
Maybe, just maybe it is demand?? Heck by next weekend Transco could be setting new delivery records for several days in a row. With the weather cooperating, new records several weeks in a row. My question is what will the price of NG be if we get a true cold snap, and their is still time. We could see $9+ NG in a heart beat. On a slightly longer time table, at what level will NG level hit by next July_Aug if we get a hot summer. Last summer was so mild peaker-units were hardly necessary. IMHO, demand growth has been masked by the nice weather.
As stated over the last several weeks my tax defered accounts have been over 90% cash. Nibbled on a couple energy stocks so the cash position is a bit lower. My trading account was over 60% cash with the general market shorted. I thought interest rates would go up this last week and when they did not I covered my shorts and started adding to the energy sector.
There has been a nice correction in the energy sector over the last couple weeks, however CL is back to $45 and $NG to $6. IMHO the energy sector will have a very nice week with prices rising right out of the chute Monday morning. When earnings start coming out, it will just add to the realization of how much cash some of these companies are generating. Also they will have about 1 1/2 months already in for the next quarter. Stock buybacks and dividend increases will be the items of the day.
Oh about storage for NG, look for a surprise again next Thursday. The week after that will be fun.
How is that for going out on a limb. As always, I have been wrong before and have the scars to prove it.
Keep the fire going and the toes warm as I might be joining you sooner than I expect!!! I might need a little toddy also. |
